Meaningless bits of information? You post that the name of the street Kingsway's home office in Hong Kong is located on sounds like the name of some TK affiliated entity (not the same name, mind you, but sounds like it) and that the Kingsway sub that owns ASTN stock has a BVI address, and on nothing more than that, you speculate that a 400% increase in the price of ASTN common is probably just a big P & D being orchestrated by by Kingsway (whom you imply just bought the stock even though the links you provide show that it is a conversion of a long held interest) . . . . and then you say that I am providing "meaningless bits of information" when I call your attention to the nature of Kingsway's long standing relationship with ATG? You say Kingsway is from the BVI, same as TK, and that's all we need to know . . . when, in fact, Kingsway is from Hong Kong and, more recently, has added a significant presence in Canada, and owns a number of offshore entities. That's not about being ASTN's historian, it's about addressing the one verifiable fact known about the ATG's relationship with Kingsway, and what we can figure out about Kingsway.
Hey maybe a 400% rise in price can be explained only as a P & D like you say, since you don't know of any other possible explanation. The only problem with that is . . . . where's the pump? Nobody is pumping this thing up, or you would surely have pointed us to it by now. Even the most enthusiastic ASTN long (probably me at this point) is ultra-cautious about drawing conclusions about what is happening. All we know is that there have been more buyers than sellers since this bottomed out in mid-November, and that ATG has been in serious discussions with someone about a so-called strategic partnership since the SHM. With ATG's history and recent track record, pumping ATG at this point it would have to be one of the more difficult pumps to pull off, wouldn't you agree? And please show me anything (anything) that demonstrates that either Jameson or Kingsway (both of who are now SEC reporting stockholders) have been sellers since they became reporting companies. To call what has happened over the past month or so an orchestrated P & D by Kingsway is not educated guessing, it is wild speculation. You better have more evidence than a BVI address and an office on Harcourt Street in Hong Kong if you are going to slander Kingsway. Talk about meaningless.
I will grant you this -- the stock appears to be up in anticipation of a deal that may or may not happen, and if it doesn't happen, there is no reason to believe we won't be right back where we were a month or two ago (which ought to make you happy). If the "deal" happens, the stock has every reason to base up from here because of the immediate financial problems it presumably solves, and the fact that the business has always had potential, even if the notion that ATG is a legitimate company is at odds with your theory that it is basically a criminal enterprise. I for one don't see the stock price moving to any truly pleasing numbers until the company actually starts doing something revenue-wise -- if the stock rockets to $2 or 3 before there is a clear sign that they are turning this around operationally, I would probably be as skeptical as you on some level (unless some really good explanations for positive price performance were readily apparent). Happy, but skeptical. And if the deal being anticipated doesn't happen, then ATG still has immediate financial problems and no clear path out of the woods (so the stock and company probably will be hurt – which ought to make you happy). Still, you gotta admit that it's hard to believe the stock could hold 40 cents like this if they were millimeters from extinction, as you seem to think, especially since they have been at 8 cents only 2 months ago.
One last thing -- you suggest that Kingsway is being insincere when they talk about launching eVWAP in Hong Kong, and suggest that launching eVWAP in HK is a ridiculous notion. You, who pride yourself on your particular brand of due diligence, may want to take a minute to read ASTN's SEC filings again. The effort to launch eVWAP in Hong Kong has been going on for over 2 years, and while breaking into a very insular foreign market is difficult and time consuming, the filings reflect there have been a number of areas where the joint venture with Kingsway (ATG-Asia) has made great progress towards that goal. If what is currently on the table viz a viz a strategic partner is a deal that would solve ATG's immediate financial problems, provide some order flow in the US, and enable them to proceed with the Canadian and Asian initiatives that they have been working on for over two years, then, in my opinion, the fact that Kingsway converted its UTTC stock into 18 MM shares of ASTN stock before the deal was consummated makes all the sense in the world (and reveals nothing about their long term intentions), and their press release can almost certainly be taken at face value. And the fact that ATG has struggled to secure market acceptance of its system in the 2 1/2 years since it became operational does not mean that the game's over, that eVWAP is not a good system, or that it offers nothing either in the US or elsewhere in the world. Every ATS/Electronic Trading System in existence took years to get to the volume levels they trade at now. eVWAP is no exception, and in many respects it is accomplishing a lot more in the way of volume much faster than some of the biggest names in the business today did when they started up 15-20 years ago. Coming to appreciate that has been difficult for many (including me) in this "I want it and I want it now" world we live in, but lack of immediate gratification is not the same thing as failure, and in this case, it's just not over yet, despite your attempts to paint it as being over.
Whatever. What happens will happen. Our musings make no difference at all. But maybe you should stop burying your head in the sand over the recent price movement, which by any definition has been dramatic (this was at 8 cents, Mary, EIGHT CENTS, two months ago – how many stocks reverse to the extent this one has so far after hitting 8 cents on no news?) or trying so hard to fit that movement into your theory that everything ASTN must be sleazy . . . and accept the possibility (just the possibility) that what is happening now may be very different from your theory and not at all "sleazy". In my opinion, there is every chance that you are now making the same mistakes on the way up that many of us (with me at the front of the line) made on the way down, only in reverse. I may well eat those words, if their negotiations break down and no deal is consummated, and the company eventually fails. As I have said many times, I am more than prepared to lose my entire investment -- I think all of us recognize the nature of the risks at this point. But you are going to be eating a whole lot of words if it happens, and shows that ASTN is indeed the legitimate company that most of us have believed it to be these past 5 years.
Just my opinion, as always.
MST |
