Slider, Re: "I've got to finalize an outside business sale and them I'm off for an extended vacation - just a little Sun, Fun, Golf & Baseball 'bunger... I'll send you a post card from Yankeetown in March."
Reading between the lines, I'm genuinely sorry that trading for a living didn't work out for you. Although you pissed me off many a time with your attacks on those that disagreed with your theory of the day, there was a lot of good reasoning in many of your posts and many of them were written with genuine humor and creativity. I think you could be a fine writer of fiction.
I believe that when Isopatch joined up and encouraged you in the "pissing contest" pursuit of acclaim and "rightness" on these threads, the result was a loss of objectivity and the taking of inflexible positions that were held too long and took too much of a percentage of the portfolio. I think it's difficult to articulate a strong position, defend it against all comers and then objectively invest in the market.
The market requires humility. It is an amazingly complex mix of sentiment, numbers and world political factors that drive the market and there is no formula that we can use to predict any of those factors, much less the mix of them all. When we find the "right" thing for the market to do, we are really just talking about the "right" thing based on the factors we're aware of. Of course the risk is not only that we're wrong in our facts or that those facts change quickly, but also that we're right and the other pivotal investors are wrong since the market follows the majority of voting dollars, even when those dollars are wrong.
Those are among the reasons why it is so dangerous to become arrogant in an approach to the market. While Isostupid is a liar and a fool, he is not truly arrogant. He knows his limitations and looks everywhere for someone with some sense to follow. He followed you into gold and made money for a while but he is out of sync now and is losing his ass. I believe that you, on the other hand, analyzed the hell out of the economy, read a lot of bear threads, were convinced by the reasoning and closed your eyes and jumped into the water.
No matter how right your reasoning may have been on buying gold and shorting techs, the fact is that over the last few months that was about the worst thing an investor could do.
I sometimes suffer from the same ailment. I now try to think of it as dealing with a crazy uncle when you were a kid. Sometimes you just had to nod your head and play the game, sometimes you could predict. With the market I try to see where it should go, see where it's going and bet on where it should go when I can. I try not to get in the way of where it's going when I think it's wrong. This is especially true when your bets are macro economic bets that depend on shortfalls in the macro economy and you have some very bright, powerful and determined economists, and the hugely powerful institutions they control, fighting against what you see as inevitable rents in the fabric.
When you get your bearings again, consider whether investing will make you happy and will make profits for you. If not, find some way to use that good mind of yours in a way that will do some good for you and for others. In the meantime, be a little careful in picking your friends. The mean and nasty ones like Isopatch will drag you down to their level if they can. g.
Good luck and come back if you decide to get back in the game or just want to stir the pot with a post or two. When you played within the bounds of decency, you played very well. Ed |
