so this is a bull market...or an uptrend from a historically oversold condition?
the chart i posted was from early november...
stockcharts.com
but forget about that chart.
The 50 and 200SDMA's have always been targets for this rally, and what other real resistance do you see on any daily chart before the COMPX 2000 area from the Sept lows in an intermediate or long term timeframe?
I defy you to find one two - three week stretch since the Sept. lows...much less a 6 session stretch, that has 3 days of distribution that match the criteria i'm using for the Jan 9, 11 and 16th sessions.
There aren't any. The only thing that remotely comes close is a period in late October at the 50dma, when the bullish percents were ALL at MUCH lower levels coming off historical lows in some instances... like the NDX.
Four months? The compx has rallied for two months off the sept/oct. lows and basically chopped sideways in a 175 point range for the last 6 weeks....getting more overbought every week on a bullish percent basis and closing at ALL TIME historical high extremes in tech at the end of last week. I call that real resistance.
Until the COMPX May '01 highs at 2328.1 are tested, and broken convincingly to the upside this is a bear market rally in my eyes... nothing more
if you're doing little jobs every day you're using an entirely different set of tools and plans than someone who drives a big machine and develops the site. I'm not interested in pick and shovel work at this stage. Everyone is different Shack, and has different objectives and methods. I'm more interested in identifying the bigger trends, trading intermediate 3-6 month tops and bottoms and holding for months...not days.... and until the May highs get taken out... the biggest most important trend is DOWN.
When you look at this chart, you can see that we're only in our 3rd rally stage here ...doesn't look so impressive when you stand back...
stockcharts.com[e,a]maclnyay[d20000101,20020116][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iUb14!Lh5,5!Li5,2!Lc20]
Message 15552893
Why have rules at all if they are to be abandoned at the first hint of uncertainty, especially when they are time tested and proven effective over the long term. I'll continue to look for the signals that i think add up to a change in the intermediate 3-6 month trend... i think they are adding up, and i'll fade what i think will be the next lower high.
Thxs for the thought provoking and challenging stuff |
