I think AOL is dead money. In truth, I think we're now seeing the downside to the big merger. Time Warner, with its good movie pipeline would probably be worth more on it's own than it is with AOL's online business as a millstone around it's neck. In any case, they're hostage to an advertising slowdown and I see little indication that advertising spending is going to pick up anytime soon, even if the economy does start moving. There are no hot new products right now. Reports from CES, the Home products show and the Auto show just don't indicate any hot new items coming to market soon, so I don't think there'll be anything to prompt an adverstising recovery until next Christmas at the earliest.
When advertising does turn, AOL will definitely be a beneficiary, and you'll want to be in, but I'm not convinced that there aren't better places to play that kind of move.
QCOM is a tough one. Subscriber growth on CDMA networks has been slower than expected and the technology has never been that much better than alternatives. That said, it is technically close to support and has a history of bouncing back. Licensing revenue is likely to be OK, not as good as the faithful would have had us believe a couple of years ago, but perhaps good enough to show decent growth. Personally, I'm neutral enough to avoid it completely. I don't see much of an edge one way or the other and I generally like to avoid much involvement in stocks that have cult followings.
My only thought on AFL is that I'd really like to meet that goose with a 12-guage.
So you can call me neutral on all three stocks and negative on waterfowl in insurance commercials...
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