Gentlemen
Regarding TWG: Apparently Hermann Derbuch will be in London later this month for some presentations. Money raising, presumably. Look at the chart $.30-$.57. Increasing volume over the past few weeks, especially a few days ago.
Insiders loading up?
No mention made of a fund raising in London so may just be promotion in which case the share price may well go higher especially if some positive news is in the pipeline.
Why buy at a $1 when you could buy at $.50 unless it is simply a matter of wanting more assurance from lab reports before risking capital. Very understandable of course, but these are speculative juniors. The only reason to play them is that there is a higher % return. If you wait for a sure thing you may as well buy a fortune 500 company.
In theory, sure things are found amongst the Fortune 500 where risk is presumably lower (and reward) although these days some might debate that.
Anyway as was pointed out, the % gain from $.50 to $1.75 is a whole lot better than $1 to $1.75 and the geochemistry, number of pipes, size of pipes, quality of diamonds and ratio of macros make JI (TWG) much less of a speculation than any other diamond junior right now. If ACA can go to $4 on what they have found what can JI do?
It is an illustrative overstatement, but in comparison to buying INTC right now, TWG is bordering on an investment IMO.
Do I like PUG as a company? You have to be kidding! NO!
But it was found money a month ago. I normally avoid speculating in plays I am not in for the long run as I feel like I am stealing money from someone. But at the time, ACA had moved a considerable % on their recent finds while PUG had not done a thing.
Logic suggested it would be dragged along if for no other reason than to catch up on a % basis. It has started to do that over the last three weeks but still has a big % of catch up theoretically left in it. Its $$$ lying on the pavement... so I am picking it up.
I do not feel too guilty as I believe ACA has some good numbers at both their finds (but they need more pipes with those same numbers) to make a good sized mine. 10% macros to micros is not a bad ratio... but as VP pointed out, I don't believe their macro size ranges as currently reported come close to what Lakefield reported at JI and TWG's samples were much... MUCH smaller.
There are no guarantees in this life, but based on the numbers published from Lakefield so far, for a diamond play in the early stages, JI has more potential to be an elephant (home run) than any other out there right now.
I have also speculated in a few others this year including MGJ. They have excellent exposure to four different plays that have the market's attention and in which majors are heavily involved. That makes their upside potential a more likely % bet than most other junior miners.
I have also speculated in CIC, BYT, DMX, NT, NOK, INTC, ZEN and PCE since 9/11 and have done very nicely thank you. I am out of the last 4 but the remainder all show significant upside potential and offer some diversification.
As for ACA's proprietary geochemical technology. If it was developed from Argyle then it was based on lamproite geochemistry not kimberlite and was certainly based on very low grade and value diamond ore. That might explain why ACA has up until now, never found anything economic and has pursued pipes over less than ideal cratonic conditions.
If you look at geotherms, orogenic histories, mag surveys and deep seismic, the Buffalo Head craton and even the Superior craton are less than ideal settings. I would not be overly optimistic that using geochemistry based on Argyle would provide ACA with insights that DeBeers, Southernera, BHP, Lakefield or DSP do not have.
Regardless, Coronation Gulf and Ottish numbers are not bad, but while JI has roughly the same % of macros to micros, the pipes tested so far have a much higher % of a larger range of macros and that is where the money is!
Do we have insider buying of TWG lately? If so, I take that as an indication of some enthusiasm for what is coming out of the lab.
Good luck to all.
Regards
Vaughn |
