Cax,
<< *********Eric isn't ths what Dr. J said? >>
Which time?
Are you talking about the same Dr. J that in mid 2000 was telling us what we wanted to hear ... that the 2nd billion handsets would be predominately CDMA.
The same Dr. J who a few months later on November 15, 2000 showed a slide at the Goldman, Sachs Internet Conference, that stated that 3G 1xRTT was "commercially available" in Korea since October 1 and 3G WCDMA would be "commercially available (in Europe) in "2003 ?????"
Message 14839284
[exhibit long since expunged from Qualcomm web site]
And so the FUD & HYPE wars began afresh.
I might add that QUALCOMM and CDG have set the benchmark for what 3G "commercially available" means. It basically means that a single carrier issues a press release announcing their "commercial launch" and a handful of a single handset model (in this case the SKI IM 2300) is available (while the rest of the 20,000 initial production run is still being produced using a non-IMT-2000 "trial" chip) while for the next 4 months the nations press talks about the "commercial trial" in progress and conjectures when the "commercial trial" will be a "commercial launch".
So now we come to late February 2001 and over his "smoked salmon pillows" while expounding the virtues of 1xEV-DO (which had not then, and still hasn't, begun standardization for GSM MAP), "commercially available (in Europe) in "2003 ?????" becomes "not commercially available (in Europe) until 2004 or 2005"
Classically described here:
Message 15399412
So after our CEO got his rocks off in what I'm sure was a well intentioned "marketing" gambit the CFO of a major 3G equipment manufacturer reiterated what the CEO of his corporation had stated 3 weeks prior (when in fact that CEO had moved out the schedule 3 months) when asked to comment on our leaders comments:
Responding to Qualcomm's comments, he said: "Our view is drastically different. We know the technology is there. We know calls have been made in the lab in W-CDMA technology. We know we can ramp up the networks of our customers." He added: "I don't understand the comment of someone who is not even in the business in terms of selling systems. We will be selling W-CDMA handsets in volumes in the second half of 2002."
globalarchive.ft.com
... which was kind of my reaction since Qualcomm's future earnings are most certainly tied to WCDMA proliferation.
We now have 4 major wireless equipment manufacturers telling us that they will deliver dual-mode GSM/WCDMA handsets in H2 2002. We also have a half dozen or so carriers including Hutchinson Whampoa and Vodafone telling us that they will commercially launch in 2002, many more in 2003, and some stragglers in 2004.
If in total thee manufacturers deliver 20,000 in total to the 40 plus carriers that are now taking delivery of commercial grade 3G WCDMA gear and bring that gear live than the "commercially available (in Europe) in "2003 ?????" was a crock of hype.
If not than it was not, and the company that told us back in early 1995 that CDMA 1900 would be commercially available when A&B block carriers were ready to launch (the HYPE) and that GSM-1900 would not (the FUD). We all know what the reality of that HYPE & FUD combo was.
As for what "commercial viability" means, I guess that different people could define that differently. I certainly don't expect heavy subscriber growth in 3GSM in 2003 and at the earliest I would not expect mass deployment much before mid 2004. I do however expect significant "commercial viability" for non-cdma (GPRS) technology beginning in 2003 and extending into 2004 and beyond. This of course putting some and growth and earnings pressure on Qualcomm because it means that we will be well into the second half of this decade before CDMA (all flavors combined) becomes the dominant air-interface technology.
<< Switzerland's dominant telecoms operator Swisscom AG said on Wednesday it did not expect any meaningful third-generation (3G) mobile services in Europe until 2004 while the handset technology catches up. ... isn't ths what Dr. J said? >>
Must have been a self fulfilling prophecy so I guess we deserve that 20% one day plummet in valuation. Indeed, one of the (many) carriers that does not want to act as an early adopter (along the lines of a Verizon or Sprint PCS) and one of the (many) carriers that is delaying Capex is using the term "meaningful" more or less synonymously with "commercially viable".
Think loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong.
Best,
- Eric - |
