Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (59010)	1/17/2002 2:49:22 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 70976

There's plenty of published data supporting the 11% figure. Off the top of my head, I'm pretty sure that's the number that Intel targets. I've also seen most of the industry analysts quote it at one time or another. Capex data is available from SEMI, IC sales data is available from the SIA and the WSTS. >>Suppose, for example, that a rogue player like China were to decide to devote a considerably higher ratio of capex/sales in order to meet economic development targets for their next 5-year plan. They decide that it is a matter of vital national interest to surpass Taiwan and have the most efficient fabs in the world. Might that not increase competitive pressure on Taiwan to do likewise in order to stay competitive, thus setting up a dynamic for a longer than usual period of above trend capex?<< Well, yes. That's exactly what happened with Korean suppliers in the DRAM market in the mid-90s, and with Taiwanese foundries in 2000. Contributing directly to the downturns of 1998 and 2001, respectively. Katherine

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