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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: sun-tzu who wrote (144493)	1/17/2002 7:43:09 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) of 436258

Swenlin...1/17/02 We got the short-term bounce virtually guaranteed by yesterday's 2.5 reading on the 1-day Arms Index, and there were a lot of smiles on CNBC before the close because Microsoft, IBM, and some other heavies were expected to have good earnings numbers after the close. Which they did, but they were all trading much lower in after-hours trading in spite of it. Another sign that there would be a bounce was the Rydex Ratio, which shot down through the lower band yesterday. Support and resistance for the Ratio is now the lower band and the 20-DMA. The continued violation of the lower band and the persistence of the Ratio remaining in the lower half of the band structure indicates that there will be a deterioration of confidence into the next significant price low, which I think will be in about three weeks. To clarify yesterday's comments, the 10-DMA Arms Index reading of yesterday tells us to look for a price bottom within 20 trading days (before February 14). --Carl Swenlin

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