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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (13627)1/18/2002 12:53:36 AM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
I'd like one more chance at explaining what I mean. Let me pose a hypothetical.

In an unnamed city on earth, two men are awake while others sleep. One is a man dressed in sackcloth and ashes, carrying around a sign which says, "Repent, the end is near!"

The other is an astronomer, who watches the movements of heavenly bodies with the careful scrutiny of an eagle searching for prey.

The astronomer discovers that an asteroid is about to hit the earth, and he runs around, shouting out the warning.

The first person to hear him is the man dressed in sackcloth and ashes, who shouts out, "you see! you see! I was right!"

Now, will you ask me why didn't I give credence to the man dressed in sackcloth and ashes? After all, he was right, just as the astronomer was right. I hope not, because he was just guessing.

Guessing right isn't the same as predicting.

So why do I diss Noland? Because he's been saying "the end is near" for a long time, and it hasn't been.

Your mileage may vary.
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