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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 327.31+8.4%9:53 AM EST
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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (59042)1/18/2002 1:50:28 AM
From: C_Johnson  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Hi All,

Haven't been around in while but here's $0.02 for the
capital spending discussion. Having just done a
presentation with charts portraying capital spending
ratios I did a double check see if my numbers were way
off.

Here's a few numbers from the worldwide semiconductor
equipment sales spreadsheet (produced by SEMI) and came
up with these numbers for total equipment sales:

1999: $25,496,673
2000: $48,385,428
2001: $26,024,188*

*The 2001 number is 11 months of data and one month
extrapolated by averaging the past 11. It's probably not
too far off.

As you all know every group has a different way of
calculating these numbers. The numbers here are the
lowest of any that are released. They are from the total
line and I do not use them to calculate my ratios. The
way I calculate capital spending for fabs takes out a
couple of categories (like the equipment used in wafer
manufacturing and mask making) and adds in a bit for
spares, maintenance and engineering services. Yes, some
of this is gray area. No one has the right answer. The
numbers from VLSI Research are bigger than SEMI's so they
probably include things like spares, maintenance and
engineering services and maybe even some companies that do
not report to SEMI. DQ's numbers tend to be closer to
VLSI's than they are to the ones from SEMI. Everyone is
trying to be as accurate as they can but there will always
be some discrepancies.

If you want to look at some charts, there's a link to the
slides from last night's presentation on this page:

infras.com

Back to the grindstone....

Carl
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