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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 159.42-1.2%Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: Jordan Levitt who wrote (111137)1/18/2002 11:22:23 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (1) of 152472
 
Jordan, re: your bullish scenario,

So let me ask you, what if [bullish scenario]

in my best case scenario, if qcom grows earnings from a $1 base at 15% per year over the next decade, i see value in the mid-teens today (i.e., i would anticipate a 15% annual return from that level, assuming the decade-long 15% CAGR comes to pass). that includes the generous assumption that its pro forma earnings are "real".

of course, 15% CAGR for the next decade would make QCOM a truly exceptional growth company--probably in the top 1% of the S&P500 if Warren Buffett is to be believed.

whether that scenario is a realistic assumption for a company whose earnings have stagnated for a couple years remains to be seen.

my "less than best case" scenarios project somewhat lower personal buy-price targets for me.
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