[madtrader]
Fri Jan 18, 12:04pm PST QQQ
Did a little Fibonacci study on QQQ for possible downside targets. From the September low to December high as a reference, the initial support or retracement target is around the 38% retracement level of 37.17 or so. none.
[madtrader]
Fri Jan 18, 12:02pm PST $NDX.X
$COMPX
We have a strange situation here. I normally spend most of time looking at QQQ chart (tradable, which is why), unless I get bad data, I would then refer to the NDX chart. I have noticed an interesting divergence between the NDX and COMPX chart a week ago, never thought much of it until we get the breakdown in NDX support today. If you pay closer attention to the charts, you will find that NDX's peak in January is a lower peak than the one back in December. Of course, the break of low since December's peak sets the chart up for a lower high and a lower low now. An obvious down trend. Prior to this, one could have argued that the NDX was just contracting it's trading ranges. We now broke out of that range to the downside, a bearish development. However, if one is to look at the COMPX chart, the January high is actually a higher high, and despite the NDX break down today, COMPX has yet to do a lower low. How you want to interpret this is really up to you. Is the COMPX more important than NDX? COMPX is certainly more broadbased, and thus suggests an outperformance by the smaller cap names relative to the bigger cap ones. In this case, a 4 plus point drop in MSFT will certain do it for the NDX. This is all very interesting as brain teasers, but this small cap outperformance is clear to see if you follow my dialy postings. Although the amount of breakout names have declined since December, but they are still popping up everyday, even in the past week or so. I still have plenty of bullish charts to look at everyday. So the message is, if you dig hard enough, there is still plenty of plays. Or as CNBC would like to tell you, this is a traders market, or stock pickers market. none.
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[Harry: Assumptions of a reversal in the down trend after MSFT reported earnings were based on MSFT guiding numbers up as a result of traction in PC sales and XBOX. We did not get that, so the scenario is now void. We might still get a bounce as retirement money starts to flow into the markets, but I now have no idea what the catalyst will be for a bounce in the market. ] |
