Israel's stupidity was in not erasing Arafat then. That they still do not baffles me.
It certainly wasn't any part of Sharon's idea to exile Arafat to Tunisia in 1982! The US keeps insisting on rescuing Arafat from his disasters. At least up until now.
My take on Sharon is that he moving cautiously, maneuvering for room. Before he can strike, he needs two things, a) approval from a clear majority of Israelis so Labor won't walk out of his government, and b) US approval to hush up the rest of world opinion.
Part a) is the easiest -- anytime he starts to worry that the Oslo Accords might rise up out of their tomb, vampire-like, Arafat personally reburies them. Seventeen months of Palestinian terror has shifted Israeli opinion sharply to the right, and the cargo of the Karine A gave everyone in Israel a clear mental image of long-range Katyushas parked in Jenin and Tulkarm, aimed at the centers of Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Part b) is the hard part. If he moves without strong US backing, the hue and cry will go up for Kosovo-style monitors in the territories to separate the combatants. If Arafat gets this, he has won! Israel will have been chased out of the territories, and the monitors will have little stomach for a fight to prevent the Palestinians from attacking the Israelis or themselves. It will be only a matter of time before they leave, and then Arafat is the clear victor -- he has gained the territories with no peace, no compromise, no giving up of any Palestinian 'rights'. |
