chaz,
I give you credit for being able to take anything to use to cut into any discussion to put in a negative spin
well, that is your spin on my spin. my spin on my spin is that i am trying to assess long-term value. as you will recall, you recently suggested to me that QCOM would not be available for much longer at these "bargain prices". that was around December 5, when QCOM closed at $61.99. #reply-16751203 so now we have even more bargain prices (now that is a positive way to spin a 27% price drop, eh!).
you may also recall that i made a note of the price at the time (so i could bring it up later, like now :), and said something like let's see how QCOM does over 10 years compared to bonds. #reply-16759850
the question is, what is a "bargain"? in the sense that stocks with many speculator buyers and sellers may fluctuate in trading channels, i guess one could say a buy at the low end of the channel may be a "bargain" (unless the channel gets "broken", which unfortunately the TA experts cannot tell us until it's already happened). indeed, perhaps that is true of QCOM today. i am no TA expert, but the stock has been beaten down quite a bit lately, so maybe it will continue to decline to around 42-43 by earnings, and then will "pop" 20% for a nice trading "bargain".
indeed, QCOM has provided many such bargains, such as the chance to buy in around 51 in summer of 2000, from which point it ran up to around 110 in the fall/winter. i guess that was a "bargain", as long as one sold for a profit before it became a "non-bargain".
but when i talk about bargain, it is not about these little speculative games that may or may not take place over the near term. it is about the intrinsic economic value QCOM (or any stock) has, relative to its share price. in that sense, i don't consider QCOM to be much of a bargain at all.
i'm sorry if it seems negative to you if i am a stickler for demanding a high expected return before investing in a stock like QCOM, and based on that condition and some growth estimates and other inputs come up with a personal buy-in target that differs from the current price. sorry, but that is just me and my math. maybe you should just allow yourself to consider, for a nanosecond or two, that i might be right.
however, instead of seeing things in terms of "good guys" and "bad guys" or "positive" and "negative", maybe it is more useful to think in terms of what provides the most bang for the buck--i.e., what is most "efficient". maybe that approach would allow you to consider a different viewpoint. |
