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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Perspective who wrote (28849)	1/18/2002 7:09:29 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) of 209892

A word about Q1 2002: it's gonna suck bigtime, especially compared to Q4. Something I didn't realize about 9/11 until it was too late: in digging a great big hole in Q3, it would help to boost Q4. A great many transactions were delayed into Q4 because of the timing of 9/11, right before quarter end. So while a great deal of Q3 business simply vanished, another big chunk ended up in Q4. Something I realized, but didn't know what to do with it yet: a great deal of business was stolen from Q1 into Q4 by the retail and auto giveaways. What they couldn't get in margins, they thought they'd make up for in volume. Riiiiiiiiiiight... Something I just realized: Q1 comparisons will be extremely difficult as a result. Q4 had some of Q3 in it, plus some business stolen from Q1. Couple that with the usual seasonality, and I think this quarter will be an absolute disaster. This, coupled with the dropping money supply, are what the markets are telegraphing IMHO. BC

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