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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 46.96

-2.8%

Jan 16 9:30 AM EST

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To: TimF who wrote (156250)	1/19/2002 12:52:20 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (3) of 186894

If AMD had been able to follow that roadmap the only thing that would have saved Intel's bacon is the fact that AMD would not have enough production capacity to dominate the market. I suppose AMD also would have been in trouble had Intel been able to execute all of its plans flawlessly. For the last couple of years there seems to have been a lot of slippage for both companies. Fact is that Intel is lucky AMD has continuing yield problems. Considering the die size advantage AMD has with Athlon and the forecast die size of Throughbred and Hammer, AMD could have a real cost advantage if they could actually manufacture their designs. AMD seems to have made the mistake of having their eyes bigger than their stomach. Under relentless pressure from Intel they are designing beyond their ability to manufacture. Jerry can brag all he wants but AMD's fabs clearly can't match his mouth. We don't know exactly what the failure mode is but the numbers don't lie. The low output from their lone copper fab is undeniable. AMD has no second source fab and they are desperately seeking a backup from foundries, despite the added cost and lower performance it will bring. Intel on the other hand has taken the stance that they will design larger die that they can comfortably manufacture. Monster fabs are in place and the transition to 12" production is real and already producing revenue. AMD is years away from following suit. OEMs have recognized that they must design around real silicon and not foils. Intel's ability to deliver real silicon is in stark contrast to AMD's continuing schedule slips and yield problems. OEMs aren't stupid. They can run the numbers as easily as we can and see AMD has manufacturing problems. So, Intel has had some real problems over the last couple of years but who is on track now and who isn't? EP

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