Hello Bill
Thanks for the explanation... I think.
Your closing comment pretty much sums up what I was thinking. Unless a junior miner is a shady play and releases insider info a day or two before the market hears the news, you won't see a signal until the lab reports are released, so what signal are you going to get other than orders based on guesses? Will the lab report be good or will it be bad? Place your bet...
In junior miners you have a whole pile of folks who jump on the flavor of the day like ACA, ride it up until they figure the balloon isn't going to get any more air in the near term and then jump/dump and short and of course pile in again after it settles.
We've all seen these cycles but I've also seen these guys dump on news only to see additional news catch them short and the stock keep on going. SUF used to do this quite a bit in the early days, I almost suspected that they broke their releases in two so they could catch the shorters with their knickers down.
I got burned a few times in the early days locking in profits only to see SUF keep on going. I frankly hope TWG does this so the dumpers and shorters can't artificially drive the stock up and down. TWG certainly had frequent NR's last year, sometimes twice a month, which if substantive, would normally have the effect of maintaining speculative interest.
Believe it or not, this rambling dissertation has a point. In junior mining plays, there is a historical pattern based on spring drilling seasonality so these signals you refer to can be relied upon just on the basis of the seasonality of the play.
This has very much been the case in NWT plays because drills work from frozen lakes that once thawed, could not support drills again for ten months. The market has blindly followed that pattern for years not paying much attention to whether the junior was drilling from ice or not.
However, in a few plays such as SUF, REX, Canabrava or Caldera activities may be in Canada and Africa, Brazil or Australia and therefore year round drilling freedom exists and news can potentially occur at any time. Then... those dumpers and shorters can get caught because there are no signals or should not be any if the play is honest.
Its possible the market may not get its head around the seasonal drilling freedom TWG has at JI and the signals you mentioned may flash in the spring, but I suggest to you that the market may get burned on this play if it assumes the moose pasture pattern applies at JI,... because it does not.
TWG can drill all spring summer and fall and need only cut back with field work in winter allowing pending lab results to maintain interest through that period.
In short, if news isn't being leaked, only opinion and guessing can drive signals and I would hate to base my investment decisions on the guess of speculators and shorters. That may be fine for the run of the mill plays, but JI is a potential elephant and can generate news all year.
I don't care what the market is signaling, this one has home run potential and I would never forgive myself if I bailed to lock in profits only to see NR after NR throughout the summer move the stock up.
As I said, the market may not grasp this potential until it happens a few times, but the short term players may pay dearly for acting on signals based on seasonal trends and guesses.
TWG drops some holes and pulls some core with a few 2 or 3 carrat stones falling out such as what happened at ABZ and its a sleigh ride. In fact, there has been a tendencey to date to find large stones at JI, so the possibility of this happening is reasonable,... perhaps even probable. Then there are the fancies that were reported. What would b ethe reaction if they started showing up... with size?
If DeBeers or Kennecott make a play for TWG its a sleigh ride and if more big pipes appear to be economic its a sleigh ride.
The market can't signal all that unless there are leaks and I haven't seen any reliable evidence of that to date.
Bottom line, ignoring some of those signals and historical patterns might leave you holding for a year, but when TWG keeps on releasing news throughout the summer, you could very possibly be holding a Royal Flush... all diamonds.
Its a gamble, but what's the down side? Holding shares for a year that if they drop this summer will appreciate again next spring. After all, these are real big pipes, lots of them with real big diamonds. There's years of news potential here.
What's the downside of selling on one of your signals, you lock in a nice profit, but you miss one of those once a decade home run opportunities.
For me, I know what I am going to do.
Good luck.
Hello Russett
You may well be right and I hope you are. I had looked on the Internet for both exhibitions and had not seen TWG on the list of presenters. That is what I based my comments on. No doubt they will have a booth but I was trying to make the point that having a geologist make a presentation to other geologists lends legitimacy to what is communicated. Analysts and the market don't believe right now, and they need some proof before they pitch TWG the same way they're blowing up ACA's skirts at present.
IR types are fine, but frankly, they rarely offer any real technical detail. They tend to be all flash and no substance and when you ask a technical question, their eyes glaze over. In TWG's case HD is an experience mining exec. but he's not a diamond geologist and his better half RD (IR) is doing her best to do a difficult job but this isn't her thing.
I don't need nor do I want to be sold on a play. Sorry, I just don't trust the pitch men. Just show me the data and the credentials of the source. I'll arrive at an informed decision without the B.S. Most knowledgeable analysts and newsletter writers pretty much feel the same. The rest are just pitch men in their own right basing recommendations on almost anything but the geological facts and go in the direction of what ever drum beat moves them.
Keep well.
Regards
Vaughn |
