Jim, Tom, Alex et al.: Secondary offering now complete biz.yahoo.com
I assume now we can get an idea of the forces of supply and demand ex Goldman pegging operations. Should be interesting.
Re comments to the effect that "shouldn't an efficient market anticipate the August 7 dilution?":
My response would be yes, but:
1) The market is not "strong-form" efficient, else none of us would be here, only "weak-form efficient" in the words of the CAPM academics
2) Given the recent changes in Rule 144 allowing complete rather than merely partial staggered liquidation by insiders, the historical dataset is somewhat wanting as to historical correlates, so the net effect on price is open to speculation although the direction of change is predictible (open to the usual ceteris paribus caveats, i.e. "all other things being equal", which they never are...)
3) Knowing that a certain event is going to transpire at a given date X in the future, some decision makers [DMs] will choose to act on date X-1, others on date X-30, etc., depending, among other factors, on DM's opportunity cost of capital and willingness to expose capital to exogenous risks, anticipation regarding other investors (speculators) lead times in reacting to the event, etc.
Good "luck" all!
SC |
