Triangle Pharmaceuticals (VIRS) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Triangle Pharmaceuticals (VIRS)

VIRS 40.03

0.0%

Oct 10 5:00 PM EST

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To: Thomas E. Wetherby who wrote (9)	7/2/1997 11:00:00 AM
From: (no name provided)	of 34

True. AIDS drugs have been approved in 40 days. BUT it takes years to complete the trials. Check out how long the protease inhibitors and 3TC trials were. These are two to four year trials. VIRS' MKC442 is the latest stage drug and is in Phase I/II. David Barry was on CNBC a couple of weeks ago and said not to expect any drugs on the market until 1999-2000. By that time, VIRS will have run out of money several times over and will have to continue to do equity deals. This in turn will result in substantial dilution. In addition, the markets will be extremely competitive at that point. Several new reverse transcriptase inhibitors will be out (Glaxo, Gilead) and at least one protease inhibitor (Glaxo/Vertex). Granted the market will be larger, but only smaller pieces of pie are left. Therefore, I would contend that VIRS while its management is experienced and excellent is grossly overvalued. This is a early-stage biotech company with all the risks associated with clinical trials. If you think a $500 million market cap is in line with other biotechs, then check out 1. NXCO - Approvable drug cap $300 million 2. SEQU, LIPO, NXTR - Approved drugs caps $300 million 3. GILD - Approved and late stage drugs $800 million (but they have $300 million in cash). Kafka666

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