ROTFLMAO! That wasn't a serious post, was it?! Ask yourself these questions and the answers should make you see the flaws in your argument:
1) Who has cash and who has debt?
2) Who has a proven market for applications and services and who doesn't?
3) Which industry has already consolidated and which has yet to enter 3-5 years of gut-wrenching consolidation?
Telecoms taking over computing/networking - not in my lifetime!
uhh..?
I see cell phones from Samsung and Nokia with a OS from either say Palm, Qualcomm, or Symbian become powerful enough that they resemble a mini-PC. Then eventually, some one will get the idea of developing an actual laptop (powered by a ARM processor) and using the most popular smart phone OS to compete against Microsoft. Innovators Dilemma. At first, people will laugh and say it'll never work, but slowly it'll catch on and this laptop with say Symbian will find it's niches. From there it will continue to move upstream and compete against MSFT and INTC.
1) Who has cash and who has debt?
Who has the cash? Well, certainly Microsoft does. But so did IBM. So did AT&T. So did Xerox. So did DEC.
Nokia, Qualcomm, and the other cell phone giants also have lots of cash.
2) Who has a proven market for applications and services and who doesn't?
Sure, Windows is proven but PDA/Smart phones are building up their support and applications. Many refused to admit that servers would eat away the mainframe industry. Or that PCs would eventually conquer. Or that NAS was a viable industry, ect..
3) Which industry has already consolidated and which has yet to enter 3-5 years of gut-wrenching consolidation?
What does consolidation have to do with smart phones evolving into mini-computers?
Hey, why don't you check out the best selling PDA in Europe
nokiausa.com
hmm..that sure does look like a computer to me. But guess what. It's not using Microsoft software. Hmm..maybe it's just me, but I think millions of people and governments would love to move away from Microsoft hold.
handspring.com
Handspring's offering is pretty interesting. Hey, it's even got a keyboard. Color version will be out before the end of the year.
gsmworld.com
gsmworld.com
Doesn't look like these will be running any Microsoft software.
3gnewsroom.com
This is pretty interesting. The screen is flexable.
3gnewsroom.com
This using Motorola's own OS, so I doubt it'll get much support and will probably fail, but gives you an idea of what's coming and why I think Microsoft will be under attack from these guys.
3gnewsroom.com
3gnewsroom.com
3gnewsroom.com
3gnewsroom.com
Some Nokia designs
3gnewsroom.com
another mini-computer that could eventually challenge laptops. |
