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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: techreports who wrote (49957)1/20/2002 3:10:06 PM
From: Dexter Lives On  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Well, I admire the conviction you have in your arguments, but there are two major issues I cannot agree on.

1) phone-based computing (one-to-many network architecture) wins out over distributed PC-based computing (many-to-many network architecture) anytime in the next 20 years (ignoring the user interface issues)
2) that the debt overhang of the Nokia/Qualcomm/... customers is irrelevant to that industry's research and investment capacity. Their customers have not even begun to get squeezed - imagine if you will an interest rate spike - ouch! Then you will see the significance of whether consolidation has occurred...

To illustrate (1), every time I want to perform a significant computation, the server at the WAN headend will have to be accessed; the cell will be heavily congested and 3g technologies will not be capable of supplying a satisfactory user experience, to justify exorbitant subscription rates. In a wireless networked environment, many computations could be handled on a nearby computer (assuming a handheld device is in use) through an 802.11 connection. The WAN headend access would be limited to applications requiring wider area database access.

It will be a long time before a phone will be able to carry out computations more efficiently than the computer in the next room. If you're arguing that Linux will overtake Windows, well, that argument has been made before ;^> .

Cheers. Rob
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