cheif,
I have made some progress in verifying Wollanchuk's record, as you asked me to do after you called my comments about his abysmal stock picking record "chit"
Larry Brubaker has kindly made a compilation of his calls, backed up with links to past interviews.
It is very interesting and entertaining but is it true? I would love to hear your comments now I have done some checking as you requested.
More predictions from the "market timer of the year."
Here's a list of Wolanchuk predictions from May 1999
stockhouse.com
Let's look at each prediction....
"Gold's going to the moon" Wrong.
"Oil going higher than $27" Right.
"Eventually it will be above $42" Wrong.
"Dow 16,000 within weeks or months" Wrong.
"Canadian dollar to go above par" Wrong.
"Nasdaq to 4,900" Right.
"American Stock Exchange to 2,800" Wrong.
"Merck...getting ready to explode" Wrong.
"Coca Cola to $120" Wrong.
"IBM's got $300 written all over it." Wrong.
"Goodyear to $100" Wrong.
"TEKI, an option that never expires" Wrong. It did expire.
Total score... 10 wrongs, two rights.
And here is the Feb. 99 interview where Wolanchuk claimed "he knew" that a VLNC battery would be in MOT's next generation cellphone.
stockhouse.com
I wonder how many "next generation" cellphones MOT has developed in the last 3 years without a VLNC battery?
More predictions by the "Market Timer of the Year" circa April 9, 2000. I count 18 wrongs, 1 right, and one maybe. Maybe that's why this was the last wollie interview on Stockhouse.
stockhouse.com
"Nasdaq will never see these lows again" Wrong, it went about 70% lower.
"The Dow will never see 10,000 again in your lifetime" Wrong.
"A stock like Procter & Gamble [PG] is going to contribute mightily to the Dow's advance." Well, P&G is higher now than it was in April 2000, but the Dow is not. Maybe.
"Cyclicals like KO, IP, DD, MRK, SBC, MSFT will be leading the Dow's advance."
KO down since 4/00. IP sideways. DD down. SBC down. MSFT down. Wrong.
"You're going to take out $120 on the next go-round with Microsoft. That might take about three weeks, if not less. " Wrong.
". Intel [INTC] is going to lead the charge. This is like shooting ducks in a barrel. Kodak [EK] is going to make a big run now." Wrong. Wrong.
"Oil made its run to our target in the $30s. I would suspect that's going to be it for a while. We're in a corrective phase that might test the lower end of the $20-dollar range, $22-23." Right.
"We made a fortune on that move from $10 to $34. The bulk of that's over. Once this correction's over, I still think there's a shot at $40 and beyond." Wrong.
"Right now we're focusing on the stock market and its move to the 16,000 area. That's where it's going to go." Wrong.
"And gold, it's getting ready to blast off. This is just the mother of all bull markets. Fear levels relative to price are just extraordinary, rather extraordinary." Wrong.
"Oil service stocks are going to go higher for the simple reason…to offset higher oil prices, we're going to have to be digging more holes. We bought Schlumberger [SLB] pretty cheap. I'll be looking for $100, $130 on that." Wrong.
"We're looking at $100 to $160 on Valence." Wrong.
"A stock like Microvision [MVIS], even though it's $47 that's thin, that's a typical $500 stock because of its capitalization." Wrong.
"You take a stock like Waverider, high-speed wireless. That had a great run. We bought it for pennies, ran up to $16 or so. It's had a beautiful, deep correction. Cleaned up the chart, filled the gaps, and what not. It appears ready to make the next launch to the sky" Wrong.
"You take some of these start-up companies, with these huge percentage gains, you take a stock like Synthetic Blood. For years, companies have been trying to find the holy grail for a blood replacement product. Synthetic Blood [SYBD] is the first company to do it. And they're in trials right now. They trade around $1.30. Of course, there's also Gene Lab [GNLB]. There's one stock in our portfolio that's been really acting well throughout all this, and that's Integrated Device [IDTI], and I think that's a bellwether (for chip stocks)." All three down by huge amounts since April 2000. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
"The key to all this is the cyclical index and the Dow Jones 65 Composite Index. They got an Elliot Wave structure that virtually guarantees a melt-up is coming dead ahead." Wrong.
". The cycles gyrate around, but the Dow is set up for a huge rally. You're not going to see the Nasdaq go to hell while that's going on." Wrong.
Here's Wolanchuk saying in January 2001, that the Nasdaq would move back through 5,000 during 2001 on its way to 20,000. Whoops.
investorlinks.com.
Wolly: Dow 19,800 in 1999. Oh my!
tscpro.thestreet.com |
