Les...do you have a link...or current day count cycles handy for any of the major U.S indexes? TIA
Stockmarket Cycles update for Friday, January 18th
At the end of today's trading we noticed that the lowest single day TRIN reading over the past 10 trading days was today's reading of 1.143. That seemed unusual to us so we asked the computer to look back over the past 61 years since 1940 to find how many other 10 day periods had transpired without one single day reading below 1.14. We were stunned at the answer. The answer is none! We even thought we may have input the formula for determining the answer incorrectly so we lowered the number to 1.10. Again the computer came back with an answer of none. In association with today's 10 day TRIN reading of 1.53, it is telling us that the selling pressure in this market, at least according to the TRIN numbers, is as great as it is been in the past 60 years.
We remind ourselves that there is great criticism concerning the Trading Index numbers and we will remain mindful of that fact. We do not ridicule the criticism and, in fact, in light of the action of the past two weeks we're beginning to lean somewhat in the direction that the criticism has some validity. It will take the passage of time to determine how valid the criticism is. Until then we must be aware that the Trading Index moving averages are historically high. Here are today's moving averages:
10 day 1.53
Open 10 1.43
New 10 1.03
Open 30 1.195
TRIN 5 7.84
The Open 10 reading of 1.43 is the fourth highest reading in the past 45 years. The only higher readings occurred on October 19th, 1987, August 17, 2001, and September 17, 2001.
For anyone that has a sense of technical market history, this has been a fascinating market to follow. We have reached the juncture where it is easy to make a bullish case and we will remain aware of that possibility. For now, however, we are slightly more comfortable on the short side the market.
Mutual fund switchers-Rydex switchers are in the Ursa Fund, Fidelity Select switchers are in cash. All mutual fund switchers should call the telephone update after 3:20 p.m. each market day and each market evening.
Stock-index futures traders-you are short to the March S&P contract. On Tuesday (Monday is a market holiday), cover your short sale on any hourly or half hourly reading on the S&P cash greater than the 1,139.10.
The XAU gave a nominal 10 day downside projection to 56.50 ± 0.50. There are no new projections for March bonds. Monday is a market holiday. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you on Tuesday.
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