Maybe the real fun has not started yet. ???
Surprise, The GOLD PRICE.
the-privateer.com
Daily Bar Chart [Daily Bar]
Weekly Bar Chart [Weekly Bar]
$US 1.00 x 3 P&F Chart [Point and Figure]
The Gold Bottom: January 11
The Present Gold Bear Market:
Gold fell from $US 414 in February 1996 to a low of $US 253 in September 1999. The extent of this fall is 38.89%. While the $US 13.80 leap on May 18, 2001 confirmed the bottom, a bull market awaits a Gold price ABOVE $US 300. The present bear market is now 71 months old - eight months longer than the previous bear market.
The Gold Bottom This Week
Please note what we have to say in "The Present Gold Bear Market" above: "While the $US 13.80 leap on May 18, 2001 confirmed the bottom ...".
We have been saying this ever since May 2001. The bottom is IN - what is not yet "in" is a definitive BULL market.
This is a TECHNICAL study of the $US spot future Gold bottom, and the charts to the left speak for themselves. EVERYTHING confirms on these charts. On the daily and weekly bar charts, the shorter-term moving average is above the longer-term one and the price is well above BOTH of them. On the weekly bar chart and the point and figure chart, the uptrend lines have been handsomely confirmed. This is especially significant on the point and figure chart, point and figure being the best way of tracking trends.
Now, take a good long look at the Longer-term weekly bar chart . The change of trend has been obvious since last May. The latest confirmation of that uptrend has come with the $US 8.20 rise in the spot future Gold price ($US 279.20 to $US 287.40) on January 9 - 10. It should be clear as clear could be that the $US 252 lows of September 1999 marked the BEGINNING of the Gold bottom and the $US 255 lows of February/April 2001 marked the END of the Gold bottom. The change in trend alone shows that. So does the moving average crossover (shorter-term back above longer-term) which took place in July 2001.
What we have on this chart is a downtrend which began in February 1996 (at $US 414) and bottomed in September 1999. Then we have two spikes - in late September/early October 1999 and in February 2000. Then we have another downtrend which bottomed in February/April 2001. And since the May 2001 spike - nearly eight months ago - we have had an UNBROKEN uptrend.
That is a Gold BOTTOM, albiet a very long and drawn out Gold bottom. To turn this bottom into a LEGITIMATE Gold BULL MARKET, spot future Gold must first exceed its 2001 high of $US 293.30 set on September 26. After that, it must go on to exceed the $US 300 level. After that, it must STAY ABOVE $US 300. Once all those criteria are fulfilled. $US Gold is in a BULL market rather than the long drawn-out bottom formation it has been in ever since August/September 1999.
Technically, it's as simple as that. And technically, Gold is conforming PERFECTLY and has been doing so for EIGHT MONTHS now, ever since the trend change occurred in May 2001.
If you are still hesitant about Gold, please keep all of the above firmly in mind. And keep in mind the fact that Gold has not yet even established its BULL market. Once it does, and the charts say that it most certainly will, you will regret it if you have not already taken the plunge.
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