S&P high has already been seen until July
dont pay attention to the pundits on Wall Street and CNBC
they said stocks would rise in autumn 2000
they said stocks would recover in 2nd Half 2001
they now expect a big technology capital purchase rebound
they take Jan-June 2001 interest rate drop, add 9-15 months, and poof, presto RECOVERY
they forget to use their brains
preferring instead to rely upon mindless past experience
3 weeks after training for the 100-meter dash, I can achieve a 13 second time
this weekend I will do it again
yoohoo! it rained all week, the track is full of mud
the historically huge and unprecedented capacity overhang will have consequences for a long time
the main effects I see are:
- tech equipment suppliers will suffer in sales and margins
- customers who use tech equipment will see nice gradual recovery, esp in productivity
- companies who rely on debt-based spending will meander
- the smaller the company, the better the chances of continuation of growth
- companies competing with finished Asian products will suffer on margins, and many might have to sell at losses to keep market share (e.g. cars)
- the first place big gains are likely are with resource-based companies (e.g. metals, oil, gas, forest -- more so speculative resources than business stuff like lumber, cardboard, and plastic)
just the opinion of a fool
anyone NOT hedging for new chaos in Saudi Arabia will be in for a big surprise
the House of Fahd is coming down
the Royal Family is being targeted by AlQaeda next
Phase I is now essentially done -- Afghany
USSpecial Forces yielded to USArmy grunts
now the First String is heading for the NEXT GAME
the schedule calls for a Rematch in Somalia
some payback is due
Tommy Franks is the quarterback
some wide receivers had career-ending injuries in 1993
the place is a veritable hornet's nest
fans run onto the field and get killed even
they dont respect how badly they are overmatched
Somalia is in close proximity to Saudi Arabia
BedLinen's homeland Yemen is next door
factoid: the standard of living for Saudi citizens has dropped over 50% since 1980
the Saudi Royal Family has expanded its luxury accomodations
including Vegas in the Desert clubs, complete with hookers, strippers, and gambling casinos
King Fahd is headed for either a DEATH or a simple FALL
all hell might break loose sometime this year
USForces have been urged to leave Prince Sultan Airbase
I believe the Royal Family has floated a trial balloon
they lack the courage and integrity to call for US to quit their land
if USForces dont leave, King Fahd is going down hard
/ jim |
