Some Time Targets and Comments From Hahn
"The next cluster of time wave projections arrive February 6-8. It would be rational to assume that we will have a market bounce after the past two weeks of decline, but it's not safe to assume February 8 will be a high. It's never that easy. We did have a time wave arrive last Friday and it seems to have delivered a low in prices, just above crucial support.
Be alert to the fact the current chart patterns are much like the conditions seen on September 7, four calendar days ahead of 911. One astute subscriber suggested the terrorist attacks came when the stock market was vulnerable to a slide, rather than the attacks precipitating the drop. That's a scary concept, because once again the capital markets are at their most vulnerable point now. We can only hope the terrorists are not sophisticated and coordinated enough to hit us at a time that would maximize a herd panic.
Greenspan's staff released a very important modification of Greenspan's San Francisco speech. Greenspan Speech Was Misjudged, Aides Say The revised message is that he is not as pessimistic on the economy as his comments seemed to indicate and there may not be another interest rate cut on January 30. This is obviously intended to boost the equity markets and the fixed income markets. He must be worried about the precarious position of the market, too. While Mr. Greenspan would never admit to looking at a chart of the stock indices, I'll bet he knows we're on the edge of a cliff. There was a time, a few short years ago, when the Chairman of the Federal Reserve claimed he never targeted the stock market. Now, that's all he targets because the economy has become the stock market. This is a frightening prospect from my perspective, which can only lead to a disaster.
After looking at hundreds of charts over the weekend, two things are obvious. 1) New short positions need to wait for a bounce, which may or may not come, because the weekly charts are just now giving a sell signal. 2) Existing long positions in high p/e growth stocks have tremendous downside risk. (It's not too late to cash out of equities!) Those who jumped in on the long side over the past 45 days are underwater and may have some tough decisions to make. The long-term-buy-and-hold group will not like the prospect of a third year of losses in equities.
Looking further into the future, the more important time waves arrive around April 1, which is a prime candidate for the bear market low. All of this assumes we will not have additional terrorist attacks or increased international tensions.
The upcoming week has many more important earnings reports. Calendar I can't imagine the flood of earnings reports helping the stock market, in light of the ongoing recession. The leading economic indicators report is released on January 22 @ 10:00 AM EST. The FOMC meets on January 30 to decide the course of interest rates.
We have stock valuations that are equal to the top of the bubble of 2000 and the top of the bubble of 1929. Once again, we have the ingredients for a stock market crash. We've had a sharp move lower since January 7 and are near “must hold” levels. The setup is very dangerous and only awaits a catalyst."
hahnscorner.com
This is a pay site but since I tend to agree with him I think it is very good. <gg> |
