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Biotech / Medical : Imclone systems (IMCL)

IMCL 0.159

0.0%

Oct 5 5:00 PM EST

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To: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL who wrote (1841)	1/21/2002 11:39:19 PM
From: 613	Read Replies (1) of 2515

Valuation - scenario: 1. If the contents of the RTF printed by the Cancer Letter is now 'confirmed', the lawyers are going to have a field day with this one, the Waksals will be hit very hard by the SEC (I wouldn't discount jail time) and the company will be in disarray. 2. There is no way that Erbitux gets approved now without another trial because there will be so much doubt cast on the existing data and the process. The reputation of the researchers is now mostly irrelevant due to the other larger political issues. Congress want to look like it interfered to get it approved. 3. So BMY has to come in a buy out the company (who else will when BMY already has 20%, but maybe). They aren't going to shell out too much more on this with all the years of litigation ahead, so they'll pick up the rest in a sweet deal - maybe another billion after the lawyers get their cut. Which would make the current evaluation around $10. What do you think?

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