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To: Stcgg who wrote (1770)	1/22/2002 12:03:12 AM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) of 2290

Thanks for the Droke forecast, I had seen that before but had forgotten it...At the moment, from the 00 Top I am counting on a Double ZZ into the ultimate Low for both the SPX and the Nasdaq...with the SPX orthodox top being Sept1/00 not the Spring00 When one lines up the macd oscillator against price on the Nasdaq, it becomes immediately clear that the oscillator made its lowest point amid the Mar/May00 initial drop. That is indicative of an A Wave not Wave 1 of a larger 5 wave sequence. Rarely do oscillators bottom in Wave 1 With that in mind, and based on the Nasdaq, I think we therefore did an ABC into the Spring 01 Low. That would be the first of the Double ZZ. From there,I think we have either done a running flat X wave into Jan7/02 or perhaps more likely the (c)subwave of a Triangle X Wave where the (e) will terminate above the Spring01 Low near 1650ish and probably closer to 2000--from there the final ABC down to new lows should then take place. I find that 'running flats' where C doesn't get back to or above A are scarcer than I would like to see--ergo the Triangle idea. I am anticipating this final new low to be put in before April 30/02. (Who knows maybe terrorist action around Salt Lake City in Feb)--and anticipate around 1250-1300 area (not the 1000 that some are talking about. That is still a long way down in a short period of time. But as I see it the next few months are a very high risk time. Why so early?--Almost entirely because, as I mentioned on the CB site, the downphases of the past 26 "4 Year Cycles" have been less than 25 mths on the Dow 90% of the time and we are already at the 24 mark from the DJ top of Jan00. Only 3 times was it longer (29m in 1900, 27m in 1932 and 31m in the 40's). I therefore am inclined to doubt that we go all the way into this Fall (33m) before the Low for the year--the October Low that Cliff talks about may well be a deep but successful retest? If we don't cave in by April, then I'll hang my hat on Sept 21 being the early low of the 4 yr cycle and the May01/Sept 01 move down being the final and second ABC (which would mean May01 was the X Wave and the final low already in--we shall see.

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