Valuation scenario, a darker one is needed:
1. The contents of the RTF are already confirmed.
2. Doubts over Erbitux data are pre-scandal, as per RTF letter the FDA has been complaining since August 2000, even about the trial design.
3. Lawyers have a sure one here, the guy said read my lips "just data from database, no more trials" , it turns out the FDA wants more trials.
4. Erbitux efficacy was questioned by the original FDA complains, now it looks worst.
5. Subjects that were not "refractory cases" but included as such turn the trial into mockery.
6. Lack of reported deaths questions the data more.
7. BMY should sue to get as much as possible its money back, if they do not believe in Erbitux.
8. IF BMY still believes in Erbitux, then they should fight to get as much as possible of the company for as little as possible, and these means to let the company go as cheap as possible down. It is cheaper to buy the rest with IMCL cash. The company has $500M before BMY, $1.5B after BMY. MV is $1.29B today close. how much debt? .
BMY needs IMCL to go to $1 per share, take over the board, pay the lawyers and buy the leftover with $1, let all the shareholders take the dust. The fact that BMY is silent means they are looking to get in as cheap as possible (whatever cheap means after $1B down the drain!). If the company has bondholders the way to go is liquidation, like ATT did to At Home.
BMY will not put another $billion here, BMY is at risk of being swallowed by another big pharma. |
