As I have said before in another place on SI, I agree that real estate is NOT a good short-term investment. It never has been, but renting for 7 years ain't cheap, either, so I wouldn't even count 7 years as short-term home ownership. Plus, when people move around often, it's often because of job transfers, and in those cases, employers help foot the bills of buying/selling homes.
However, does everyone know that some housing figures quoted here and there are counting refinances as a "sale" of a home? That's because a new deed gets recorded at the local courthouse when a house is refinanced--and deed recordations are one source of housing turnover figures. My own principal-residence deed just got recorded for the third time, because my spouse and I refinanced years ago and recently set up a revocable trust and had to re-title the house in the name of the trust--so there isn't quite as much churn or turnover as the figures might imply.
Likewise, there isn't as much *debt* outstanding as some people think (namely, short-sellers who anticipate a real estate crash). Just one overstatement of debt can occur in credit card debt figures----We have put our kids' college tuitions on credit cards and sometimes even put part of a car purchase on cards, but pay the cards off each month. Those credit card balances aren't really debt, then, but I'm sure they get counted as debt.
Obviously, the bear case for real estate has a few holes to fill in terms of analyzing data, in my humble opinion. |
