With over 14 million new CDMA subs in the 4th quarter alone, I think the analysts forgot that CDMA has grown beyond the US. Growth in South America, Asia, and Europe picked up quite a bit in the 4th quarter. Korea 1X shipments must have gone through the roof.
All the negative BS about PCS and VZ having a shitty 4th quarter is irrelevant now that CDMA is taking on global dimensions. The reason I am in the stock is for the deployment of CDMA2000 in current spectrum in N America, China, Japan, Korea, South America, and Europe. Also, I am anticipating the near term success of WCDMA in new spectrum. I believe that WCDMA will help CDMA2000 maintain it's global growth of new subs north of 150 million in 2002 (1% global penetration), 200 million in 2003 (5% GSM penetration), and 265 million in 2004 (10% GSM penetration).
I can't imagine any situation in economics in which such a large increase in demand would not lead to a cyclical recovery in the price of 3G phones. I can just hear the cell phone makers clamoring about component shortages again in 12 o 18 months. <ng>
As for accounting practices, the only reason people are getting sick of write-offs is because we are in a recession. Fortunatley, the government has given companies like AOL the green light to write off as much good will as they want in a single quarter. Many companies have compressed 10 years of amortization into a single write-off.
No one has ever made money shorting the market coming out of a recession. The improvements to consumer electronics will lead to a much better demand scenario for computers, wireless equipment, and other accessories. The recovery in the pc market and the wireless market will have the biggest impact. As demand for these improved products encourages 24/7 consumption of bandwidth, maybe even the capital spending companies will return to health. |
