Imclone systems (IMCL) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Imclone systems (IMCL)

IMCL 0.159

0.0%

Oct 5 5:00 PM EST

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To: Cacaito who wrote (1858)	1/22/2002 10:48:18 PM
From: IRWIN JAMES FRANKEL	Read Replies (2) of 2515

Cacaito, It seems to me that you have some of the facts right. I reach a different conclusion. I do hold some premises to which you likely will take exception. Premises: Erbitux works, is approvable (at some point) and will be economically valuable (there may be more competition but it will leave market share for Erbitux). Some facts are not in dispute: - Market cap about $1.4 billion - Value of shares not already owned by BMY $1.1 B - Cash in IMCL $350 mil - BMY milestone payments to come due $0.8 B ($.3 acceptance $.5 approval) Looked at this way, for the cash in the company and the remaining milestones, BMY could own the whole company, if it transacted at the market price today. That is not realistic - it would take a premium. At a 50% premium to the market, BMY would pay an additional $550 million but would own the whole company. This is academic. I do not believe it is going to happen. I expect that there is a standstill agreement that management would have to waive. But, it does suggest to me that IMCL is selling at compelling valuation. ij

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