K-meister,
The longer I fool around with this stuff, the more interesting it is for me to try to "predict the future." It is really a very interesting game to play.
For me, a couple of good short set ups for tomorrow are MSFT, DELL and (encore!) GS. I'll look again after the first hour of trading begins and take my chances. I'll add HC and UCO to my watchlist (along with IMCL, WWCA, BMY and others), but until the chart says to me, "It's safe, Kodiakbully, come out and play," I'll just stand aside.
Your record is very good, sir, and I didn't enter the fray here on HC or UCO except to caution my friends as to "position management." I've come to rely more and more on the charts because they seem to be the only constant. Even if you knew everything there was to know about compressors (hey, they're not trash compactors, are they?), and read every annual report from every company in the industry, and knew every sector in the energy business as well as J.P. Getty, and understood exactly where the world economy and interest/forex rates were going, you still wouldn't have enough information to trade HC and UCO correctly, that is, to determine if these shares bottomed today, are about to bottom tomorrow, or are only halfway there. Not without something else to go on, some evidence that whoever is selling it is finishing up, and that whoever the buyers are are coming out of the shadows.
Let me explain by way of example. You're looking at an energy stock, it's trading at $26 which you think is fine, since you think and hope it will go to $35, but you'd really like to buy it on some irrational selloff, at $21 or even $20 if you could get it. Suddenly one happy day the stock suddenly sells down to $19 and you buy. Next day it goes to $16, then $14, then $12, and suddenly $8. Without paying attention to the charts, to some signal that the end of the selling is coming, you're flying without instruments. The stock resets and is now a $7-12 stock for the foreseeable future.
Now, of course, you're all thinking I'm thinking of HAL. But maybe it was MDR, or maybe it wasn't an energy stock but rather OXHP, or IMCL, or ACTM.
I wouldn't call you long and wrong, you and JimP could be timing this to par-damn-fection, but I'm only looking at what I see, and I don't see "bottom" spelled out in a language I can comprehend. Not yet. My guess is you are long and early, and my hope is you stay nimble and liquid. What the hell, short MSFT tomorrow after the first hour if it fails to bust back up through the 50 DMA.
stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclynay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!i!f][iut!Uk14!Ub14!Ud20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]
Or, better yet, take a look at this top reversal formation in LEN, a fairly likely bet once you look at the open. If charts could talk this one might be shouting, "I wanna go down."
stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclynay[pd20,2!b50!b200!b25!i!f][iut!Uk14!Ub14!Ud20!Lc3!Lf!Lh14,3!La12,26,9]
Best regards,
Kb |
