Find another guy with this kind of forecast:
Started By: gem-x
Date: Sep 20, 2001 9:42 PM
**Update**
Here's an analysis of major bottoms in the history of the stock market:
-The supercycle low of 41.22 in 1932, bottomed in the vicinity of the wave 4 from 1880 to 1929 (40-50).
-The supercycle low of the 1973-1974 recession bottomed in the 520 level on the DOW...at the exact low of the wave 4 of the previous supercycle, which was 520.
-The 90-91 low on the DOW, bottomed in the same vicinity, testing the crash low of the 1987 bottom.
In all the major bottoms in history, each bear market ended within the wave 4 low of the previous supercycle.
Right now, we are right at that point. The Wave 4 supercycle low of the NASDAQ was 1357.02, with a close of 1419, and the DOW's supercycle wave 4 low was 7399. with a close of around 7773-7800.
the DOW has downside risk of another 600-1000 points, and the NASDAQ another 120 points. Tomorrow could be the day of infamy...a possible circuit breaking drop due to the triple witching expiration.
In the October low of 1998, the VIX shot up to an intraday high of 60, but closed in the 45 range. The previous week of that dour 1998 low had VIX readings that spiked to the 52 level, but closed each of those days in the 45 range.
Today, we had a VIX close of 49.04, which has never happened, but the all time high was set in Oct 1987 of around 129. In 1998, the put call ratio spiked as high as 1.23, but closed at 1.15 with a moving average around .80....today the put call ratio hit 1.27, a 21 day moving average of .88, and closed at the high. This would mean the readings have surpassed the Oct 98 low. If you look at the VXN, the highest reading registered was in March 2000 of 90, and today the VXN closed at 84.25.
Basically, within the next couple days, the ultimate bottom could be reached, and a massive reversal could emerge.
I'd like to see all the fear come to the ultimate crescendo tomorrow. The levels to watch on the DOW in the next couple days are 7400-7800 and on the NASDAQ 1357-1419.
This could be it in the next couple days, so hang tight.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>...
Prechter predicted a rally, but he didn't give a why, exact numbers, and also he was a month behind.
Look at the date, it's 1 day before the bottom hit.. |
