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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 687.85

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Dec 29 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35970)	1/23/2002 7:49:11 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) of 69307

Harry, what I've noted from that list is that the underlying structural cycle seems intact with two major insights for lack of a better term. Sector rotations are like what comes to market.. it depends on the harvest which depends on the weather, disease, and events. The difference being that instead of commodities looking fat or thin (good wheat crop or poor), stocks are fat or lean from having FED OFF underlying conditions. Stocks are like pork bellies from the previous grain cycle. Underlying conditions have changed .. remember phrases like 'ramping up production?' For the last year 'on the skids' has been reality. So yes, as you say internet is thin, but the cycle seems to hold on a relative basis. Also don't forget that Yahoo and Amazon may be the remaining whales but at the plankton level, there's lots of new activity as small companies taking advantage of new opportunities. I've been beseiged by new idea otc and bb stocks from 3-d maps to 4000:1 image compression for transmission startups. Continuing this strained analogy Banks should have been feeding well.. indeed anything that consumes easy capital from money supply and lowered capital costs. The fees of refunding a financially stressed world with easy money must be doing well. The other insight if this wild analogy can be tolerated a moment more.. think back fifteen years or more ago and remember the beginnings of investing. When one is young to the game small agressive companies with a great idea attract your attention. Who picks GM, no excitement. We've simply gotten old with the pack we ran with. There are new contenders out there right now that will eventually have their own bubble in ten years.. those are the one's we need to find. Sometimes when we're talking about JNPR or Yahoo or NT I feel like I'm listening to retiree's talking about how they made it big with go-go stocks in the 60's. I'm reminded of this when someone tells me how long Saturday Night live has been on air... its ancient! Its an institution like the old Ed Sullivan show. Same with MTV.. where are the fresh ideas and suffering geniuses! Jim

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