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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (49992)1/23/2002 8:53:09 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
3g with its massively expensive base stations, appears to be in trouble in a time of capital scarcity...

This is the kind of theory that sounds nice but tends to fail whenever I start looking for evidence.

The contracts are signed and deployment of 3G infrastructure has already begun. The operators are going to spend north of $5 Billion this year with that number dramatically increasing during '03.

I can think of two companies that have had to postpone their 3G launches due to capital scarcity....Nextel and a failed 3G licensee in Norway (held by Sonera). Two operators are hardly a trend.

If you look at the 3G licensee around the world, you will find that Vodafone, Telefonica, Hutchinson, and NTT Docomo are going to have coverage that covers most of the world. If/when these operators start running into financial trouble I will start paying attention. Check out the amount of debt that these companies that have been able to raise over the last 24 months. I dont think you will find a problem with capital scarcity.

Looking closer to home, the capital expenditures of the big 6 wireless companies in the US are INCREASING this year. In how many other industries can you find this to be true?

Any pushouts in the deployment of 3G are going to be the result of technical problems....not lack of capital.

Slacker
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