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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: isopatch who wrote (28092)1/23/2002 9:48:16 AM
From: Paul Shread  Read Replies (1) of 52237
 
One comment on sentiment: II bears were above 40% for most of 1974 and reached 70% at the bottom; in the last two weeks, they rose from about 23% to 25% (don't have today's readings yet) after bottoming just above 40% (briefly) in September. Given that most other indicators, such as put interest, weren't around back then, we really have no idea how they'd look in 1973-1974-like conditions. At some point in major bears, everyone's bearish, but stocks keep falling anyway. Just some food for thought, but Investors Intelligence is the only indicator I know of that's been through a two-year 30%+ bear.

Not that we'll see those extremes this soon - 1973-1974 was 7-8 years after the initial peak - but it's something to think about. If you're looking for the intermediate to longer-term trend, II is probably the best sentiment indicator to watch. And right now it's turned up off a 5-year low, reached previously only in July 1998 and and July 2001.
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