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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: At_The_Ask who wrote (145409)	1/23/2002 10:19:50 AM
From: reaper	Read Replies (2) of 436258

<<With you on energy. Seems to be a decent contrarian play at this point>> AtAsk I do not THINK that energy is a "contrarian" play at these levels. As I reported several weeks ago, every year Barton Biggs and Byron Wein (Morgan Stanley) do a big shindig for their big hedgie clients, and they report on the "consensus" findings from that meeting. One item that received the greatest consensus from the hedgies was that ENERGY was going to be a good stock play in CY02, especially "gassy" names (i.e. those tied to natural gas). I would also note that an energy play with which I am intimately familiar, Patterson/UTI Energy (PTEN), which is valued at +/- $4.5mm per owned rig, just completed a private market transaction in which they acquired 17 rigs for a mere $1.5mm each. Now I know an operating business with good mgmt (which PTEN is) is worth more than the sum of its assets, but 3x more seems a bit much to me and indicates a LOT of recovery is already priced into the stock. Not saying that there aren't reasons to own energy, from dividends to a hedge against war/unrest in the Middle East. I just don't think that its "contrarian" right now. Cheers

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