The US carriers weren't in Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7 and they failed. They tried again at Midway- -not knowing the US was reading their naval codes. Instead of setting a trap, they fell into one. Four Japanese carriers lost to one US. And the war was lost that day.
In a sense the war was lost by Japan on Dec 7 1941. Both in that that did not take out the carriers (or a few other important targets that actually where at Pearl Harbor) and in the sense that they attacked someone who had so much more production capability then they did. We could out produce Japan 10 to 1, and Japan had no realistic way to destroy out production capabilities or cut off our raw materials even if they did sink every Carrier that we had at either Pearl Harbor or Midway. They hoped for a negotiated settlement that would let them keep some of their gains, particularly areas that had oil, but the chances that we would allow a settlement like that after Pearl Harbor where very slim unless Japan had a way to force us to surrender and they never did. I suppose if Japan's declaration of war was given to the US before the attacks as they planned, and they did catch our carriers at Pearl Harbor, and did take out the oil and repair facilities there, and we didn't break Japan's codes, and Germany did much better in Europe (perhaps by winning the Battle of Britain, and invading England successfully and/or by not invading Russia) causing us to divert even more resources there, and if Japan said it would stop attacking China, and maybe give some of the land back, that there would have been a small chance that we might have let them keep something in the Pacific besides their home islands if they negotiated a separate peace, but even then I am not sure, and that would have required a long run of things to go right for Japan.
Tim |
