Hi ACF, more entertainmment and crystal checking ... on Amazon, their profit is made up of USD 16 mm of Euro exchange gain and USD 11 mm of operating losses, based on revenue growing at 15% per annum, and so I think Amazon will still disappear, just as Enron and KMart did and is doing. I think there may be more friction-free ways to play the Euro than holding Amazon shares.
On the leading indicators, consumer confidence, and equity markets, whatever rise is presumably due to belief that the recession is over. The truth maybe that the real recession has not started yet. Just like earthquakes, big ones follows small ones, in turn followed by more small ones.
<<1. Federal funds rate stays under 2% for most of 2002.>>
This would not be good news, but bad news, indicative of something is terribly wrong, as in unnatural.
<<2. No sign of inflation for the foreseeable future>>
Only true on the manufacturing side, disguising the inflation on the service side. Trashing manufacturing may not be a good idea, much like the human capital experiment that Enron was.
<<3. US productivity surge continues unabated>>
I think we can safely dismiss those numbers, from the way they are made up to the manner in which they are interpreted, from 1995 onward, especially when you tally in the waste that telecosmic was, resulting in a broadband penetration far far lower than we have in Freedom Mountain Kowloon and Money Rock Hong Kong.
<<4. Dot com bust now officially over (thank you Amazon), dot com survivors generating free cash flow>>
Let us not speak of the River of no Returns anymore.
<<5. NBER declares recession ends January, '02, mildest recession in 30 years>>
And then a new and real recession will be declared to have started in August of 2002, one where people do not buy SUVs, and refinance negative asset residences.
<<6. US economy growing at 6% by 4Q '02>>
Let's hope this happens for all of our futures.
<<7. Amazon, eBay stock prices triple in 2002>>
Does that mean you are buying these specific names? If not, why not. Presumably due to the risks imbedded in your view of the future that does not justify such a course of action.
<<8. Nasdaq at 3,000, Dow at 12,000 by year-end>>
This also will not be good news, meaning it will simply prolong the directionless meandering, ala Japan.
<<9. Dot com bust, Nasdaq collapse viewed not as Crash but as "severe correction" in ongoing bull market by 12/02>>
In my script, the crash has not happened yet, because folks are still spending and not saving. There is simply no fear about the future.
<<10. Gold surges all the way to $265/oz. by 12/02>>
This is good news, eliminating more marginal producers, giving more time to generate cash from derivative trades, even as one slowly hoards for the future.
<<11. Alan Greenspan retires this year>> due to job stress and media hectoring.
<<12. Osama bin Who? by year end. Never captured, body never found>> due to same job stress and media hectoring, presumably.
Chugs, Jay |
