re: The consumer may lead the next leg down
Yeah, I spent most of 2001 worrying about that. In the last couple of months, I've tentatively concluded that it isn't going to happen, at least not in 2002. September 2001 was exactly the type of event that should have made consumers stop spending, should have made people feel the need to raise cash and deleverage. And it didn't happen. A brief hiatus, while we all watched CNN, and then everyone went back to BorrowingAndSpending.
And, as long as inflation is low and the dollar stays high, the government can keep on lowering rates and doing deficit spending and pumping up the money supply at a ridiculous rate.
About that excess semi capacity:
Question: how much 300mm and .13 micron equipment is unused?
Answer: none.
It's the old equipment that is sitting unused, and that's not what AMAT is selling. The contract manufacturers have, overall, a lot of unused capacity, but their leading-edge fabs have business. In the previous downturn, the industry put the 300mm transition on hold. Can't do that now, it's too far along. So, the old equipment gets junked (sooner than you think), and the semi companies order a lot of new equipment. |
