gem-x's Elliott Wave Forecasts: Jan 24, 2002. Charts look interesting..
I've been spent a couple hours looking at all the favorite mo-mo tech stocks, mid cap and large cap, as well as the QQQ, BTK, SOX and the COMP.
In the next couple of days, there's a chance that another bottom, or re-test will hit or complete, and a chance of a pretty significant rally. The levels I'm watching are: 1859 (1.618 for Wave C in a standard expanded flat), 1853 (the bottom of the previous wave 4) and 1826, which is a .382 retrace of the entire rally from 1387 to 2099....the correction we're in is likely Wave 2, in expanded flat form, which means the next rally would be a Wave 3, which is the "wealth making" wave. Since this corrective wave has been sideways, the strongest possibility is for 1826. It's gonna be watch and react time in the next couple days, because days 32, 32, 33, and 34 are coming up in this corrective wave. There's a good chance that tomorrow will be yet another short term Greenspan dump, and the test is on of 1826, 1853 and 1859.
It appears, to me, that Greenspan is setting up ahead of the Fed meeting....could this be the last rate cut? Could Greenspan signal recovery? I think this coming Fed meeting is going to be one of the most important in years....
But the Wave 3 would come, ONLY IF all the scenarios fall into place...I don't want to get everyone in a froth. As you can see, I've been mostly watch and wait. It's almost impossible to trade a wave like this, because one day, a stock is popping ahead of earnings, and when it comes out..KABOOM...or one day a stock is plummeting ahead of earnings, and than KABOOM...mega-short squeeze.
Anyway, since I started e-mailing these forecasts when NASDAQ was in the 2099-2020 range since Greenspan's last speech, I've gone from seeing dangerous "5 of 5's" all around to seeing "A-B-C's" all around.
Many, if not all the favorite NASDAQ stocks and indexes are in either expanded flats, flats, or zigzags, retracing between .382 to .618 of their entire rally from 1387 to 2099. Many looking very textbook.
FLATS: BRCM BRCD QLGC MCDT (near .382 retrace)
EXPANDED FLATS: AMAT NVLS KLIC KLAC INTC AMD SOX
Zigzags: NVDA GNSS IBM CSCO SUNW PMCS AMCC LU NT MSFT PSFT NTAP EBAY JDSU GLW (near .500/.618 retrace)
I think the storage sector is gonna be the last to be wacked, (if you saw after hours action, you'll know what I mean), and that's the sector I want to be in if the Wave 3 materializes. EMC has a history of adding big selling pressurse to the sector every time it reports...and they report tomorrw morning.
If BRCD MCDT and QLGC hold their December lows, I'm prepared to jump in...
A quick peek at Feb calls on QLGC shows mega put interest between 45 and 50, and not much in the way of resistence until 55....I'd like to see QLGC take a dive to 45, and not 43 in the next couple days, and from there I'll see how it reacts...
Other technical indicators: Put/call ratio: 10 day: .74 21 day: .70 (bullish)
Investor Sentiment: 52% Bulls 27% Bears (I think this is right). VIX 23.66 (this kinda worries me), Fast Stochastics are near 0-20 the past couple days for COMP and many techs (oversold)
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