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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 52.51+2.7%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST
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To: software salesperson who wrote (5527)1/24/2002 10:46:24 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
sales,

<SEPR vs NBIX sleep drugs>

The main caveat here is that we haven't seen any scientific publications, so we are going basically from company PR. That said, my sense is that both are better than the current market leader, Ambien.

One difference between them is that SEPR's drug has a longer (6 hour) half-life. This is potentially a double-edged sword, because even though it will work better at keeping the patient asleep all night, you run the risk of next-day drowsiness. However, the fact that NBIX now has a time-release version in trials means that their half-life was likely too short to maintain sleep all night long.

The SEPR H&Q presentation gave some nice details on a comparison with Ambien. Basically it matched Ambien on time to sleep onset, but beat it pretty convincingly on a number of other scores: for number of awakenings as well as total time awake Estorra (but not Ambien) beat placebo. Ambien also showed much more next day dizziness and somnolence than placebo, whereas Estorra was virtually identical with placebo.

This market is likely pretty elastic to increased DTC advertising. Note that ELN has now acquired Sonata - I would expect to see a time release version from them as well (Sonata has an extremely short half-life).

Bottom line is that I think both the SEPR and NBIX drugs are looking very good at this stage based on what they've released so far.

Peter
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