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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 303.84+1.3%Dec 22 4:00 PM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (1741)1/24/2002 5:06:28 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95622
 
Cary, You present an interesting theory. It prompted me to
use some of the data I have stored to first answer the
question - how has AMAT tracked the SOX, or vice versa,
on a weekly basis since 9/21. The following table is the
result.

AMAT SOX AMAT SOX DIFF
WEEKLY WEEKLY TOTAL TOTAL SOX
AMAT SOX PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT PERCENT MINUS
PRICE PRICE CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE AMAT
9/21/01 29.24 381.01
9/28/01 28.44 373.70 -2.7 -1.9 -2.7 -1.9 0.8
10/5/01 31.55 406.10 10.9 8.7 7.9 6.6 -1.3
10/12/01 35.16 473.78 11.4 16.7 20.2 24.3 4.1
10/19/01 32.55 423.82 -7.4 -10.5 11.3 11.2 -0.1
10/26/01 36.87 480.74 13.3 13.4 26.1 26.2 0.1
11/2/01 37.97 489.44 3.0 1.8 29.9 28.5 -1.4
11/9/01 38.57 506.81 1.6 3.5 31.9 33.0 1.1
11/15/01 39.26 529.92 1.8 4.6 34.3 39.1 4.8
11/23/01 38.76 511.30 -1.3 -3.5 32.6 34.2 1.6
11/30/01 39.74 518.95 2.5 1.5 35.9 36.2 0.3
12/7/01 44.45 571.74 11.9 10.2 52.0 50.1 -2.0
12/14/01 42.32 549.02 -4.8 -4.0 44.7 44.1 -0.6
12/21/01 39.97 520.58 -5.6 -5.2 36.7 36.6 -0.1
12/28/01 41.81 538.79 4.6 3.5 43.0 41.4 -1.6
1/4/02 45.22 589.89 8.2 9.5 54.7 54.8 0.2
1/11/02 45.01 568.89 -0.5 -3.6 53.9 49.3 -4.6
1/18/02 40.35 523.04 -10.4 -8.1 38.0 37.3 -0.7

The last column gives a measure of difference on a weekly
basis, between AMAT and the SOX. Note that in general, the
correlation is quite close. The major weekly difference
occurred during the week of 11/15/01 when the SOX was 4.8
percent ahead of AMAT. Last week however, AMAT was ahead
of the SOX by 0.7 percent. Over that 17 week period, the
SOX was up 37.3 percent and AMAT was up 38.0 percent - a
very close correlation. I will update this table over the
next 6 months to see how well they track. It should prove
to be interesting and enlightening.<gg>

Don
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