SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Gottfried who wrote (11901)1/24/2002 8:15:47 PM
From: The Ox  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
Hi G,
As always, thanks for your charts, they are a great visual aid.

One would think that with the longer, slower bottom that has been(is being) put in place by the industry that the rebound should be much less acute than in the past. I've looked at the anomaly that's been created by surge in spending during 2000 and trying to "smooth" out the bump by front loading some of the $ into earlier years, as well as applying some of the revenue into 2001. By mentally creating a more steady trend, based on the historical 35% to 40% yoy growth average for the industry, I have been trying to see what we should expect to see from the industry for the next couple of years.

On a separate note and using this chart: suite101.com

I find it interesting that the previous 2 peaks were 3 or 4 months long and so were the corresponding troughs. It looks to me like the current/last peak was sustained for an extra 9 months or 12 months in total. The current bottoming process has put in a base of 9 months, so one might speculate that we are within 3 months of the trend heading substantially higher (from a visual perspective).

I think we should try to get the revenue guidance percentages for Don's group of semi equips and track in a table what the expectations are for this segment. Many of the companies have given CY1Q02 revenue guidance from slightly down to up 5-10% (at least those that I have looked at). It would be interesting to see what the combined number/average predicts for this group.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News