OT: Respond to Ron,
Message 16952823
>>Perhaps under #6 in your intro should be the condition, 'BT news that is highly significant for an individual company, but may not be initially perceived as important for the sector in general'. <<
#6 was to correct if I did excluded something important in intro.
>> After all, MZ, I realize that all of us SI BT junkies like to pride ourselves in finding the truly significant scientific news which will impact the sector. <<
I do not pride myself, but am happy if I did provide help when asked for.
>>However, an equally important reason to report developments, and probably the entire reason SI exists, is to MAKE MONEY as a result of this discovery process.<<
Message 16954904
I thought that you are avoiding BT sector, as way to make money. But, I do agree that SI is great help (beyond any imagination) to make informed investment. At least it was case for me for past five years of my membership.
>>So while you may not have deemed the news from DCTH and VVUS worthy, and your news from IDEC/Roche is certainly *scientifically* more significant than the two items I presented, it is also a fact that DCTH has ~doubled and VVUS is up about 15% (both trading on substantially increased volume) in the ~5 trading days since I placed those press releases on this thread.
Thus it would appear, at this very early time frame, that investors, voting with their capital, are indeed interpreting the news from Delcath and Vivus as significant achievements. <<
VVUS news on early preclinical results on PDE5 inhibitor and IND (me too drug) has little value, when we will have three PDE5 drug on market for ED this year, several more in clinic, different targets for ED in R&D,…
When we may expect this candidate to reach market? In five, ten, maybe twenty years? BTW, market already corrected price spike (which is more related to PFE patent news, not PDE candidate) by 15%, and may (will, imo) correct further.
Regards the DCTH, news on their delivery technology for liver cancer and plan for PIII is OK for company, but hardly will change or impact significantly treatment for metastases to liver, imo. They have only preliminary results in small pts numbers, so positive results have to be confirmed with more pts in controlled trial.
>>In short, at this stage (time will tell), both DCTH and VVUS appear to fit the definition quite compellingly as 'Biotech Success, 2002'.
I will try to remember this and respond by year-end.
>>Framed differently, if someone reports a 'significant achievement' here (and you give your 'blessing' to the 'significance'), and investors think otherwise (the stock falls by 50% the next day)...is THAT considered a 'Biotech success???
Give me example?
News should be irrelevant of the stock price move (it can be from institutions, individuals,…) and is not tide to short term stock performance.
For instance Rituxan NEW results will further expand already big off-label market. It point that good target and good drug DO generate profit.
>>If you say yes to that, then this thread is VERY different than the 'Biotech Failure' thread where a major criterion, if not THE major criterion, is that the stock of the company reporting the bad news has crashed.
Do you view this thread as completely independent of stock price movement??? Do you view this thread as a haven for intellectual discourse of advances in science, completely removed from the crude world of finance??? <<
Independent of individual stock price move, but it may effect overall sentiment for sector. It should be connected to world of finance, but it is not necessary.
>>That's a fine idea, a commendable goal, and one I'd love to join. But such a discussion is more suited for another forum.
Well, here we agree.
No necessary discussion. In few words one may explain why is news bad or good for sector.
>>This is Silicon Investor after all.
Yes, still it is. Don’t forget that!
>>Is it not one of the objectives of this thread to learn of significant positive developments as soon as they are reported so that BT investors can take early advantage of the news before it disseminates over the subsequent days and weeks to the rest of the investing community.
NO! In principle and in *the facto*.
You have *biotech news tread*, and separate tread for each company to post timely news. This tread (and biotech failure) is to select and post important news which may set tone and trend for sector as whole. After each Q, mid-year, and year-end I will (anyone else is more than welcome) summarize news flow and sector performance. At the end it may help to predict or speculate when new positive trend for BT will surface, independently of the market.
>>That was precisely the scenario that played out with the news I posted for both Delcath and Vivus.
Disagree!
Miljenko |
