[RumorDude]
Thu Jan 24, 6:54pm PST F
Ford is floating a massive 4.5B convertible offering. The interesting thing i see in this particular toxic is that they have built in upside (22.5%). With the cruddy credit ratings being assigned to these bonds, I'll predict this is one that will be jumped on by the appropriate "buy-the-bond, short-the-stock" folk and could very well add additional pressure to F. While I don't think this is nearly as bad as the KM situation, if things don't start getting better for F soon and suppliers start to cringe like they did with KM, this situation could get much worse. With an inherent 22.5% upside in the convert price, and a 6.5% return over the next 30 years, this is an interesting twist to actually give a much higher implicit yield, though at much higher risk. This could be an interesting short candidate around that price - 17.5ish. Already have some F positions.
[madtrader]
Thu Jan 24, 5:31pm PST BAX
Headfake! Yesterday this one showed up on my end of day scan as a possible long candidate. It "broke out". But this massive bearish engulfing candle with even bigger volume renders that signal false. This is another example of "buyers remorse". I would imagine there are a lot of trapped longs here with that "deer in the headlight" sense. Probably a good short here. none.
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[RumorDude]
Thu Jan 24, 4:35pm PST VRSN
Just commenting that indeed, VRSN's reduced guidance is probably just the tip of the iceberg. As with OPWV, This is a great candidate to increase short positions on bounces. I won't reiterate all the reasons I have already done so many times but this one has quite a way to fall. short them bounces.
[madtrader]
Thu Jan 24, 2:01pm PST EK
I suggested this was an "easy" short back in December. The massive volume turn around today suggests the decline is done and over with for now. A key reversal day like this is now an "easy" long. none.
[madtrader]
Thu Jan 24, 12:01pm PST QQQ
That was a headfake and I took it. stopped out on my QQQ puts.
[madtrader]
Thu Jan 24, 11:02am PST TMCS
Taking my gains on this one as well. I think the market is in for some rough ride. sold TMCS.
[madtrader]
Thu Jan 24, 10:58am PST QQQ
Well, we broke the openning level, so it will have to fill the morning gap on the down side. short QQQ.
[madtrader]
Thu Jan 24, 10:57am PST Greenspan
I think it is time for Mr.Greenspan to retire. He totally mis-read the economy. Inflated the hell out of back in the mid to late 90s, then decided too many young coders are getting rich too fast. In any case, I am not even sure his speech is relevant anymore. The only thing I do notice is the market's displeasure whenever he opens his mouth. He did it several weeks ago in San Francisco, that was the start of the slide in January. He is showing a bit of remorse by his last comments today, but the damage is done. The man has lost credibility, and it shows in the market's reaction. I believe he is lagging the real world by a while margin, whatever data he has that suggests the economy is still hurting is purely academic at this point. The fact is the economy is coming back in a big way, the concern the Street has is that this comeback is again being manufactured by what potentially could be excess liquidity. While companies are still trying to work off their excess inventories, they don't need any easier money to build up inventory again. And it will just be a matter of time we will have to pay for the "sins" of easy money. none |
