ECRI weekly index rises, signals imminent recovery
NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - A weekly indicator of U.S. economic activity rose in the latest week and its persistent pattern of improvement suggests the economy is on the verge of recovery, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.
ECRI's Weekly Leading Index edged higher, to 120.7 in the week ended Jan. 18 from 120.1 in the previous week.
``The recovery start date will be in some month in the first quarter of 2002,'' said Anirvan Banerji, ECRI research director.
A rise in mortgage applications and a decline in initial jobless claims helped push the index higher in the latest week, ECRI said.
But Banerji questioned the potential strength of the rebound, saying that because consumer spending held up fairly well during the recession, the economy may lack the pent-up demand that usually triggers a robust bounce-back.
At the same time, he said the Fed's aggressive rate-cutting campaign certainly helped things along.
``Fed action has been unusually aggressive and frequent, and to that extent, clearly it has mitigated the severity of the recession,'' Banerji said.
The index's growth rate, which compares the four-week moving average with its behavior over the preceding year, also rose in the latest week, to 1.1 percent from 0.8 percent one week earlier.
The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.
Historical Data
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Week ending Level Growth rate (%)
Jan 18 120.7 1.1
Jan 11 120.1 0.8
Jan 4 120.6 0.3
Dec 28 117.4 -0.4
Dec 21 120.1 -0.2
Dec 14 118.7 -1.5
Dec 7 119.1 -2.5
Nov 30 118.0 -4.1
Nov 23 117.1 -5.1
Nov 16 116.7 -6.5
Nov 9 115.5 -7.8
Nov 2 115.9 -8.2
Oct 26 114.1 -8.8
Oct 19 113.9 -8.7
Oct 12 115.2 -7.9
Oct 05 114.8 -7.1
Sep 28 115.3 -5.8
Sep 21 116.7 -4.3
Sep 14 117.7 -3.4
Sep 07 118.8 -2.9
Aug 31 119.8 -2.6
Aug 24 119.3 -2.3
Aug 17 119.4 -1.7
Aug 10 120.0 -1.1
Aug 03 120.8 -1.3
Jul 27 121.2 -2.0
Jul 20 121.3 -2.5
Jul 13 119.8 -2.9
Jul 06 119.4 -2.4
Jun 29 120.4 -1.7
Jun 22 120.7 -1.4
Jun 15 121.2 -1.5
Jun 08 121.6 -2.0
Jun 01 121.3 -2.4
May 25 120.8 -2.8
May 18 120.2 -3.6
May 11 120.8 -4.4
May 04 120.6 -5.6
Apr 27 119.2 -6.9
Apr 20 118.5 -7.5
Apr 13 118.3 -7.9
Apr 06 118.0 -8.0
Mar 30 118.2 -7.7
Mar 23 118.2 -7.2
Mar 16 118.8 -6.8
Mar 09 119.4 -6.4
Mar 02 120.2 -6.0
Feb 23 119.6 -5.6
Feb 16 120.4 -5.0
Feb 09 120.8 -4.2
Feb 02 121.7 -3.8
Jan 26 121.6 -4.8
Jan 19 122.8 -6.8
Jan 12 122.3 -8.6
Jan 05 119.8 -9.5
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