Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 230.92

+3.1%

3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: advocatedevil who wrote (59384)	1/25/2002 3:22:34 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) of 70976

So, we've seen the inflection point in TSMC's capacity utilization rate. In the 1998 and 1996 downturns, I watched Micron's ASPs to tell me when the chip sector had hit bottom. Today, I think the capacity utilization of foundries is a better indicator, and it's telling us the bottom is in. This gives me a big shove further into a bullish stance. I'll make a prediction: next reporting season, we are going to see very few warnings from semis, and a lot of upside surprises in results. And, by the quarter after that, we are going to see semis increasing their capex budgets. I may just hold onto what I just bought at 40. I had thought it would be a ST channel-trade. But, AMAT will be hitting 60, when we have 2 or 3 consecutive increases in semi-equip billings, and I'm getting fairly sure we see that sometime this year. The shorting game is getting dangerous.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next