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Strategies & Market Trends : Complacency Indexes
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To: TechTrader42 who started this subject1/25/2002 4:10:48 PM
From: TechTrader42  Read Replies (1) of 1487
 
And after the close, before we repair to the nearest watering holes:

ST Naz CI: 91.879
MT Naz CI: 91.879
LT Naz CI: 98.906

ST S&P CI: 98.496
MT S&P CI: 98.496
LT S&P CI: 99.831

Several possibilities: An up day Monday, to push those indexes to 100; an up day for part of Monday, followed by a reversal; a down day Monday, because the indexes are all overbought; or a surprising breakout to the upside, despite the overbought indexes.

Note how the Naz broke under the 200 SMA a couple of days ago. It's making a valiant effort to get back above it, but it may be hopeless. It's running into strong resistance at the 200. (And QQQ is hitting resistance at the 50 SMA.) Isn't that pattern in the Nasdaq's chart similar to an upgap two crows? The only problem is that the last two candles aren't black.

Monty: Would you call the pattern in the Naz chart an upgap two crows despite the fact that the last two candles are white? In the NDX chart, one of the candles is black.

Even if it is an upgap two crows of sorts, there could still be a mat-hold pattern, if things take off Tuesday. So there's always the danger of a breakout to the upside.

Note the dojis in the Naz chart. Another possible sign of a reversal. Down? I don't know.
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